CONVECTIVE FORECAST
VALID 06Z MON 01/12 - 06Z TUE 02/12 2003
ISSUED: 01/12 00:18Z
FORECASTER: GROENEMEIJER

General thunderstorms are forecast across western Ireland, the southwestern and southern UK, western France, northwestern, southern and east-central Spain and parts of the western Mediterranean Sea and some coastal areas, the Aegean Sea and southern and southwestern Turkey.

SYNOPSIS

On Monday at 06Z...an elongated trough centered around 5 WL is expected to transform into a cut-off low moving to the central Iberian peninsula. Filled with a cold air-mass, this system creates some marginal latent instability over the Atlantic waters and - primarily during the end of the forecast period - over some parts of the western Mediterranean as well. A ridge dominates the weather over south-central Europe and the northern Balkans, causing stable conditions. A high-pressure system at low, mid- and upper levels is located over west-central Russia creating subsidence and stable conditions in that area as well. A weak upper low over the southern Aegean Sea is slowly moving eastward while becoming even less significant. Some marginal latent instability is observed and expected to be present near this system on Monday, causing scattered thunderstorms.

DISCUSSION

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